The recent survey results of The Global City with experts and businesses on the prospects of the real estate market show a growth trend in most segments. In which, the segment of industrial real estate, land plot, and housing has the strongest growth potential, ...
The pressure to increase real estate prices is still very high?
The real estate market in 2021 is a colorful picture with many highlights. First of all, there are local land fever in some localities such as Hoa Binh, Hanoi, Thanh Hoa, some areas of Bac Giang province...
WHY DOES “LIKE FACE”?
A survey by The Global City just published shows that the main reason most experts point to is that idle cash flow cannot be poured into the business (because of the impact of Covid-19), had to search for money. New attractive investment channel. And ground land is such an investment channel, especially when information on planning, construction of industrial parks... is published. Besides, the phenomenon of "price blowing" to make money difference is also a remarkable point in these land fevers.
According to Reportlinker, the global real estate market is expected to grow from $3386.11 billion in 2021 to $3741.06 billion in 2022 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.5%. . The market is expected to reach $5388.87 billion by 2026 at a CAGR of 9.6%.
In the past year, the price of construction materials, especially steel and cement, has increased sharply, causing house prices to increase by about 10-15% compared to 2020. In addition, barriers from legal factors , the imbalance of supply - demand and the results of a number of land auctions have caused housing prices to be continuously pushed up. In addition to the increase in prices of real estate products in different segments, stocks of real estate companies also increased strongly in the past year. Especially at the end of the year, due to the outstanding growth of Vietnam's stock market in 2021, large cash flows poured into the market, and after unprecedented large auctions in the market.
Regarding the prospect of the real estate industry in 2022 and the coming years, many experts and businesses believe that there will be development along with the recovery of the economy after the epidemic. In addition, the world real estate market is forecasted to have a quick recovery, which also contributes to boosting the Vietnamese real estate market in 2022 with brighter, more positive colors compared to 2021, and will gradually return to the pre-epidemic trajectory (in 2019).
MANY FACTORS THAT PROMOTE GROWTH
“The growth of the real estate industry in the near term is mainly due to companies restructuring their operations and recovering from the negative impact of the pandemic. Along with that is the support of the Government's economic stimulus packages, interest rates are still low, public investment has been accelerated to disburse, many policy bottlenecks have been removed, foreign investment flows still remain low. continues to flow strongly into Vietnam, remittance flows continue to operate stably (except for sources from Russia and Ukraine)", experts assessed.
In the short term, the Government's economic stimulus package, no matter which area is poured into, will bring positive effects to the real estate market, thanks to improving the purchasing power of the people in general. Even if they rebound after a long time of being suppressed, as well as improve their future income expectations, the retail and industrial real estate market will benefit significantly. The soon-to-be-implemented economic support package of VND 350,000 billion with nearly VND 114,000 billion for the infrastructure sector will have a direct impact on the real estate market not only in the short term but also as a key growth driver. market in the coming years.
In fact, the growth driver for the real estate industry in general, not only in the post-Covid-19 period, is also affected by the trend of urbanization and the increase of the middle class in both the number of As well as property value, the rapidly increasing number of personal cars will also greatly affect the demand for some segments of high-end apartments, resort real estate and land plots.
According to Knight Frank's latest Prosperity report, it is forecast that in the next 5 years, the growth of the super-rich in Vietnam will be 26%, on par with Hong Kong and Taiwan. This is the basis for many investors to continue pursuing the high-end and luxury segment in the coming time.
In addition to the supportive push, many businesses are still worried that the real estate industry in 2022 will still face many challenges. For example, the speed of economic recovery is still difficult; the number of new Covid-19 cases is still increasing along with the general instability in geopolitics; The supply in the market has not improved much because legal problems have not been completely resolved. Especially, inflation causes the input factors of the real estate market to increase and the rental or purchase price of real estate also adjusts and is under pressure to increase prices.
Many respondents to the survey said that in terms of average price fluctuations in 2022, the segment of land plots, agricultural land, houses and low-cost apartments is likely to increase in price in the range of 11-20%. The segments of suburban real estate, industrial real estate, housing and mid-end apartments, and offices for lease can increase by 5-10% on average compared to the previous year.
In 2022, land fever is likely to continue, but with a lower probability. The reason is that currently, the information about planning and infrastructure is still heavily speculative and the blowing up of real estate prices by unfair methods has not yet been sanctioned. However, land fever is not only caused by the above reasons, it can be the result of macro policies, official master plans from the government...
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